Pruitt - Dr. Alley Explains Role of CO2 in Atmosphere's Evolution.

Based on the most up to date understanding, Richard Alley explains the fascinating interplay between geologic and chemical forces and how that directly influences our atmosphere's greenhouse properties and thus controls what will thrive in Earth's biosphere.

There are so many folds within folds of complexity that a talk or two doesn't do the topic justice, so I'm going to continue focusing on Deep-time and the evolution of Earth's atmosphere.  Here I present an excellent talk by Professor Alley, who earned his PhD in 1987.  Since then he’s established himself as a giant in the field of ice core studies and Paleoclimatology, having written over 240 refereed scientific publications, along with countless articles, and by now probably hundreds of engaging talks sharing his ever growing understanding with the lay public.  

This one was given at the National Academy of Sciences 152nd Annual Meeting and Symposium—Earths, Moons, Mars & Stars.  Below the fold I include notes and post many of his slides to help you fully appreciate the Professor's story.

National Academy of Science's member Richard Alley presents 

On 4.6 Billion Years of Earth’s Climate History: The Role of CO₂ 

http://www.nasonline.org/news-and-multimedia/video-gallery/152nd-annual-meeting/symposium.html

National Academy of Sciences

Published on Jun 1, 2015

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujkcTZZlikg

Professor Richard Alley:

“You will meet people who say, ‘we are just telling stories,’ and no we aren’t.  
We actually will generate hypotheses, that lead to new measurements, 
that lead to new samples, that are taken specifically for hypothesis testing.”    

 Dr. Alley presents the scientific process in action, 

developing an internally consistent understanding:

Pruitt - Explaining the science, Prof. Summerhayes.

Nothing to add.  I introduce my next expert witness. Dr. Summerhayes takes us on a tour of climate science history and explains how scientists figured out, what they figured out, and why it matters.  

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Colin Summerhayes: Earth's Climate Evolution - A Geological Perspective - Earth's Climate Evolution rocks and ice as tape recorders of climate change.

You will hear this phrase used, “The climate is always changing,” - geologists particularly in the all oil industry I find are very fond of trotting out this statement.  The climates always changing as if that means that we don't have to worry about the climate changes that are taking place now, or may take place tomorrow.  ‘Ah, because the climate is always changing.’ 

To me that is what I call a mindless mantra it's a mindless measure unless you start thinking and you engage your brains and you start wondering yeah but what made the climate change, how it did, when it did.  So that's what we have to do. We have to figure out going back in the geological record what made the climate change the way it did when it did.  That’s what I’m going to talk about. (June 3, 2015)

Followed by an outline with time signature:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0pgrzGnpv0

Grantham Imperial  |  Published on Jun 16, 2015

A Grantham Seminar by Dr Colin Summerhayes, University of Cambridge. 

Pruitt - life and mineral co-evolution made our atmosphere, Dr. Hazen

I mentioned this talk at the end of my previous post and have decided to share the entire talk followed by notes, since (besides being fascinating) it provides more depth to our understanding of Earth's evolution - a necessary ingredient for appreciating today's geophysical processes, and their transformation over time.  Here we look at the intimate relationship between life and mineral and geological evolution.  It provides an essential prerequisite for a clear understanding of our atmosphere and the Global Heat and Moisture Distribution Engine that sustains our lives.  

Dr. Robert Hazen, Carnegie Institution for Science, Geophysical Laboratory

Published on Jul 29, 2014 - CarnegieInstitution - 57:29 minutes 

The story of Earth is a 4.5-billion-year saga of dramatic transformations, driven by physical, chemical, and—based on a fascinating growing body of evidence—biological processes. The co-evolution of life and rocks, the new paradigm that frames this lecture, unfolds in an irreversible sequence of evolutionary stages. Each stage re-sculpted our planet's surface, each introduced new planetary processes and phenomena, and each inexorably paved the way for the next. This grand and intertwined tale of Earth's living and non-living spheres is only now coming into focus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08EaPC0zetw

Pruitt about our atmosphere. In the beginning.

At the root of Republican (and Pruitt’s) inability to understand our global climate engine and what we are doing to it, is their shallow perception of our planet.  To them our “environment” and “biosphere” are abstract concepts with the depth of a post card to their minds.

It requires a serious understanding of and appreciation for these past four and half billion years of dynamic evolution unfolding one day after another before you can hope to understand what’s happening to our atmosphere and what it promises for our future.

Here we consider very deep-time, the first four billion years of Earth’s evolution.  Earth, birth of the global ocean, fundamental geo-physical mechanisms falling into place, such as the geomagnetic field, plate tectonics, continent formations, dim sun, near moon, massive global tides, the dance between mineral evolution and primitive life, the dance between life and our evolving atmosphere.  

These are prerequisites for understanding our global heat and moisture distribution engine. 

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I start with a short video that helps put the notion of deep time into perspective.  Then a lucid introductory lecture from an excellent speaker, Professor Julie Ferguson, discussing our atmosphere’s evolving composition.

This is followed by Co-evolution of Minerals and Life | Dr Robert Hazen.  Along with some further thoughts and links to many more relevant resources written by experts and other authoritative science communicators.

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4.6 Billion Years in the making. Our wonderful world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ra9lwKn75s

yumorganics

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UCIrvine OpenCourseWare

Published on Apr 3, 2014 - University of California at Irvine

ESS 5. Lec 01. The Atmosphere: Composition and Evolution of the Atmosphere

Professor Julie Ferguson, Ph.D.  -  Earth System Science

Climate Models - Pruitt look at Red team deceptions

Republicans never acknowledge that climate models are among the most formidable and exacting challenges scientists undertake.  Then to make matters worse Republicans are consistently misrepresenting not only how climate models are used, but also doing their best to characterize them as failures, when they most certainly are not failures!

For the details on the General Circulation Model success story I’m going to hand it over to Coby Beck with the introduction to his November 20, 2006 Grist article.  After that I list significant models that have been correct.  Which is followed by links to and exerts from various informative articles.

Factcheck: Climate models have not ‘exaggerated’ global warming

Zeke Hausfather  September 21, 2017

Climate models are accurately predicting ocean and global warming

John Abraham, July 27, 2016

Climate models are even more accurate than you thought

Dana Nuccitelli, July 31,2015

The model scientist who fixed the greenhouse effect

Andy Extance - November 23, 2013

Fighting for useful climate models

Andy Extance - November 30, 2013

Why trust climate models?   It’s a matter of simple science

Scott K. Johnson - Sept 5 2013

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‘Climate models are unproven’  –  Actually, GCM’s have many confirmed successes under their belts

By Coby Beck on Nov 20, 2006

http://grist.org/article/climate-models-are-unproven/

… In 1988, James Hansen of NASA GISS fame predicted [PDF] that temperature would climb over the next 12 years, with a possible brief episode of cooling in the event of a large volcanic eruption. He made this prediction in a landmark paper and before a Senate hearing, which marked the official “coming out” to the general public of anthropogenic global warming. 

Twelve years later, he was proven remarkably correct, requiring adjustment only for the timing difference between the simulated future volcanic eruption and the actual eruption of Mount Pinatubo.

CO2 Science - Pruitt, proof is in the pudding! Impossible Modern Marvels

After explaining that the USAF scientists and technicians who established our "CO₂ science" possessed impeccable credentials, we should also point out that if those scientists had been wrong, they would have been exposed in short order.  

Why you ask?  Because of the increasing variety of modern marvels that would have been impossible had those studies not produced exquisitely accurate facts and figures.

The following was written to supplement the previous review of USA atmospheric research and to explain why a layperson can feel very comfortable trusting, heck believing, scientists, their atmospheric studies, and overall understanding.   

This post is an interesting sort of one way collaborative effort.  You see, over the years I've communicated with a number of scientists and grads.  Asking straight forward questions and often receiving informative replies.  I try not to overdo my welcome, after all these are very busy professionals with more important things to do. Still, for this post I sent a grand shout out to a number of my correspondence pals and received more responses than I expected including some informative surprises for me. I have taken great liberty slicing and dicing their contributions. Rewriting some, leaving other quotes untouched and giving all of it some order.

I mention this because I want to be clear the following List of "  CO₂ science dependent" modern marvels is not my own cleverness and I send a big Thank You! out to my informed anonymous heroes!  

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

The increase in atmospheric concentration of CO₂ since preindustrial times is a given. Appreciate that the radiative physics of greenhouse gases are very well-understood.

Consider, heat seeking missiles flying through different altitudes searching for a heat source who's signature is changing with altitude.  In order to program the computer to track and home in on a jet's exhaust, the programmer must know how to accurately compensate for the changing signature.  It requires a complete knowledge of the radiative properties of all the gases and how they change throughout the atmosphere, or all that hardware is for naught.

{Incidentally, there is not one contrarian "theory" or challenge to climate science or the geophysics that hasn't been looked at by informed individuals.  You'll find that contrarian errors, omissions, and falsifications have been clearly explained.  

Don't believe me, look at this outline for yourself: 

 http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?f=taxonomy

OUTLINE - Science’s Blue team educates Pruitt’s Red team

An outline for exploring the learning opportunities Pruitt's Red Team Blue Team challenge offers for exposing GOP's intellectual dishonesty.  With time I hope to add posts and links to sources explaining all of the listed items.

"Blue team v Pruitt"

 Pruitt, questioning the unquestionable is fine. 

 Now, will you pay attention to the answers you receive? 

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Science’s Blue team educates 

Pruitt’s GOP Red team  -  A Rough Outline.

I appreciate this is only an amateur’s exercise, I dare you to do better.  

Heck, I implore you to do better.  Please.

 https://study.com/cimages/multimages/16/earths_atmosphere_and_the_setting_sun.jpg

It seems Pruitt’s grand dream of a Red Team Blue Team “Exercise” is little more than a fading memory, a dead horse even.  One that Republicans and Democrats alike just as soon forget about.

I, on the other hand, believe this is one dead horse that deserves some serious beating.  Because this beating promises to produce a few lessons about fairly and squarely confronting the climate science lies that Pruitt and his Republican Red Team fraudsters have bet our house, farm and futures on.

The following is a rough outline for a rational level playing field constructive debate where the Blue Team has a chance to describe the scientific fundamentals, before going on to examine the claims, tactics and reasoning behind the Republican Red team's dogmatic rejection of serious climate science.

I appreciate that my list can certainly be improved on and I’ll admit I’m not equipped to truly flesh it out, though I’ll give it a start as time permits.  Doing this project justice would require some savvy engaged climate science communicators with more time, discipline, depth of understanding, not to mention opportunities.  

I hope this makes sense to a few and that it might serve to inspire some dynamic minds with the ability to do more.  

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Fundamental Climate Science Understanding

2018, now what? Considering the Problem in 14 VERSES.

(first few paragraphs of introduction, moved to the end my list.)      I want to start the year with this summary of what I've learned from nearly fifty years of paying attention to the unfolding public climate science dialogue, in 14 verses.  I share this list because I believe it may help some sort out their own experiences and evolving understanding about what’s actually being argued by Republican climate science ‘skeptics’ such as Pruitt's supposed Red team.  Well okay, I’m also hoping to connect with a few like minded individuals, who could help improve it.

I reject and confront the GOP’s assumption that deliberate malicious lying is an appropriate political strategy when it comes to something as serious and consequential as understanding Anthropogenic Global Warming.

14 observations on our dysfunctional public dialogue.

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1)  Uncertainties vs. known Physical Certainties

It is a disservice to constantly allow trivial uncertainties to become the focal point of the public discussion.

In real life when we get mired or overwhelmed by increasingly complex situations, we stop, back off a little, get reoriented with the big picture, reacquaint ourselves with what we do know for certain, then move forward again.  

I’m not saying ignore uncertainties!  I’m saying keep reminding us of the overriding fundamental certainties!  Thus putting contrarian trivial pursuits into real world perspective.

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2)  Map vs. Territory Problem

Scientists are Cartographers mapping out the geophysical realities of our planet, the Territory if you will.  They do the best they can with the data they have available.

Too often we get trapped into assuming that until our scientists can define all aspects with statistical certainty, we should assume it's okay to ignore.  

That's getting lost on the Map and forgetting we exist within the Territory.  

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3)  Sloppy usage of “Natural Variability”

CO2 Science - Pruitt, proof is in the pudding! Impossible Modern Marvels

This article has been moved forward into January 2018.

https://confrontingsciencecontrarians.blogspot.com/2018/01/pruitt-proof-isin-modernmarvels.html